Potential 50,000 Rooftop Solar Jobs in Virginia, for 10 Years

By Will Driscoll

Virginia could produce 32 percent of its electricity from rooftop solar installations, according to a report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).  Yes, that’s a lot:

  • It’s 28,500 megawatts of solar capacity—almost double the 15,000 megawatts that Dominion Virginia Power found would save customers $1.5 billion, but said it wouldn’t know where to site the solar panels.
  • Installing that much rooftop solar in Virginia would yield about 50,000 jobs for ten years, based on the number of U.S. solar jobs in 2016 and the number of megawatts of solar installed.
 ind-8-convert-solar-va-beach
Al Chiriboga and Andrew Schultz of Convert Solar install a 10 kilowatt solar system on an office building in Virginia Beach.

The NREL analysis evaluated the potential for solar on buildings with at least one unshaded roof plane that is nearly flat, or faces east, southeast, south, southwest, or west.  If any such roof plane could accommodate at least 1.5 kilowatts of solar panels, NREL modeled solar on that roof plane.  Summing across all buildings in Virginia yielded a technical potential of 28,500 megawatts of rooftop solar.  NREL found that nationwide, 66 percent of large building rooftop area is suitable for solar, versus 49 percent for medium buildings and 26 percent for small buildings.

The technical potential is simply what the laws of physics allow, combined with common sense—i.e., no north-facing panels.  (NREL did count west-facing panels, which have value for meeting late afternoon electricity demand, and east-facing panels, which are equally productive.)  NREL assumed an average solar panel efficiency of 16 percent, and noted that if panels averaging 20 percent efficiency were used, the solar potential would be 25 percent greater (because 20 is that much greater than 16).  At least three firms make solar panels exceeding 20 percent efficiency.

The technical potential is just a theoretical maximum.  Yet the economic potential, or the sum of all money-saving rooftop solar investments, may not be far behind, especially over the next ten years, as solar costs keep falling due to technology improvements and economies of scale.  Each year more building owners realize they can save money with rooftop solar, including Virginia school systems.

 J Elkin Install Shockoe Solar 12.7 KW.jpg
Ryan Phaup and Andrew Harrison of Shockoe Solar install photovoltaic panels in Urbanna, VA.

The Solar Foundation counted 260,077 U.S. solar workers in 2016, and the Solar Energy Industries Association reported 2016 U.S. solar installations of 14,626 megawatts.  Dividing the two yields 18 workers per megawatt of solar installed.  Finally, spacing out the installation of NREL’s 28,500 megawatts of Virginia rooftop solar over ten years would mean 2,850 megawatts of rooftop solar installed per year, times 18 workers per megawatt, or 50,000 workers—for a ten-year period.

For rooftop installations, the jobs per megawatt would tend to exceed 18, since rooftop jobs are smaller and more labor-intensive than the 2016 U.S. mix of utility-scale solar (10,000 megawatts) and rooftop solar.  That is the experience of Edge Energy, whose co-owner Anthony Colella reports that installing one megawatt of solar per year requires a staff of 20—a roofing crew, an electrical crew, a project manager, a production manager, and sales and administrative support staff.  He sees a growing solar potential in Virginia, and says his firm plans to add 15-20 staff members this year and a similar number in 2018.

On the other hand, as the rooftop solar industry grows to meet the NREL potential, economies of scale should also come into play.  So on balance, 18 jobs per megawatt, and 50,000 jobs from installing 2,850 megawatts of rooftop solar per year over ten years, seems like a good ballpark estimate.

 20160708_174506-edge-energy
Henry Portillo (peak), Tulio Guzman and Carlos Cardona of EDGE Energy celebrate an 8 kW solar installation in Arlington, VA.

The NREL report noted that “In practice, the integration of a significant quantity of rooftop solar into the national portfolio of generation capacity would require a flexible grid, supporting infrastructure, and a suite of enabling technologies.”

Mr. Colella of Edge Energy said that “to reach for the big numbers,” Virginia needs to lift the size limits on residential and commercial systems, eliminate demand charges on larger systems, change the voluntary renewable portfolio standard into a requirement, with a closed Virginia market for solar renewable energy credits, and allow solar leases, solar power purchase agreements, and community solar.

In response to the NREL projection, a Dominion Virginia Power representative stated that the utility is installing solar toward a state goal of 500 megawatts of solar by 2020.  Appalachian Electric Power declined to comment.

Virginia currently has 238 megawatts of solar capacity, compared to North Carolina, which has 3,012 megawatts.

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Tangled up in CO2

Tangled up in CO2

Early one mornin’ the sun was shinin’

It was gettin’ hot

I was wond’rin’ if the climate’s changin’

Some still say it’s not

Seems to me there’ve been lots of floods

Sure is gonna be rough

Droughts and fires and people dyin’

But our bankbook isn’t big enough

Mile-wide tornadoes across the South

Forests dyin’ out West

Lots of chatter on the East Coast

Lord knows we’ve paid some dues, gettin’ through

Tangled up in CO2

 

We’ve burned coal for a hundred years

With no hint of remorse

Now we all drive cars and trucks

And they burn gas of course

We drive our cars as far as we can

Fill them with high-test

Drill for oil wherever it’s found

Thinking it is best

I left my car on the side of the road

But as I was walkin’ away

I heard it say over my shoulder,

“We’ll meet again someday on the avenue”

Tangled up in CO2

 

I took a job in the great north woods

Choppin’ down trees for a spell

But I never did like it all that much

And one day the last tree fell

So I drifted down to New Orleans

Where I lucky was to be employed

Workin’ for a while on a fishin’ boat

Till the Gulf–BP destroyed

But all the while I was alone

The wind was close behind

I seen a lot of turbines

And they never escaped my mind, and I just grew

Tangled up in CO2

 

She was workin’ near a solar place

Where I stopped in for a beer

I just kept lookin’ at the side of her face

In the sunlight so clear

And later on as the panels shipped out

I was just about to do the same,

She was standing there beside my chair

And she said, “just what’s your game?”

I muttered somethin’ underneath my breath,

She studied the lines on my face.

I must admit I felt a little uneasy

When she bent down to whisper “Energy must renew”

Tangled up in CO2

 

She reached into her canvas tote and offered me a ripe

Mango–“I’m vegetarian” she said

“You look like the meat-eating type”

Then she opened up a book of policy

And handed it to me

Written by Amory Lovins

From the twentieth century

And every one of them words rang true

And glowed like LEDs

“Soft Energy Paths” was the name

Or just wind and solar to you

Tangled up in CO2

 

I lived with her on Montague Street

In a passive solar lair

Wind power charged our cars at night

And no pollution in the air

We had shut the coal plants down

And fossil subsidies died

BP had to sell all it owned

And froze up inside

And now the sun had finally come out

No more singin’ the blues

The only thing we had to do

Was to keep on keepin’ on like a bird that flew,

Tangled up in CO2

 

We’re never goin’ back again,

Ain’t no way nohow

All that stuff we used to burn

It’s an illusion to me now

Mountain top removal

Frackin’ for natural gas

Don’t know how it all got started

Don’t know why we sat on our ass

So long

 

But me, I’m still on the road

In my electric car

All of us did want the same

We just saw it from a different point of view

Tangled up in CO2

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